The Pride of Pennsylvania

Let me tell my loyal readers that if John Kerry wins the election, it will be by winning Pennsylvania. And if John Kerry wins Pennsylvania, it will be because my sister has done an amazing job of getting out the vote, of informing people regarding George "I'm a steward of the land" Bush's abyssmal environmental record, and telling how John Kerry can change things for the better in the United States.

Kim has been involved with the Sierra Clubs election campaign for over a year (I went with her to one of the first local action meetings in Harrisburg), and she has been volunteering her time with MoveOn.org as well as the Democratic Party in Pennsylvania. She has appeared on local television and her name can be found on the Sierra Club website. She has been calling voters in the Harrisburg areas and will be canvassing in Philadelphia in the days before the election.

Democracy is nothing without the active participation of those who care about the issues. Kim Anderson has sacrificed not a small amount of time to ensure a victory on November 2.

It is time for everyone who reads this to do their part as well:

Vote!

Money Quote of the Day

"And Strauss said, 'You know, handling this thing is kind of like making love to a gorilla.' 'Oh, yeah, how's that?' 'Well, you can't stop until the gorilla gets off.'"

George H. W. Bush, being interviewed by Cokie Roberts on NPR, was speaking about his time as leader of the Republican National Committee during the Watergate scandal. Richard Strauss, then the head of the Democratic National Committee called to offer sarcastic sympathy to Bush, who was in the middle of drafting a letter urging President Nixon to resign.

Kerry 287 Bush 251 -- the official prediction

This is my prediction for the election, subject to a complete revisal at some point between now and the election:

Kerry: 287
Arizona, Arkansas, Califonia, Colorado, Connecticut, DC, Deleware, Hawaii, Illinois, Maine, Maryland, Mass., Michigan, Minnesota, Nevada, NJ, NH, NY, Ohio, Oregon, Penn, RI, Vermont, Washington

Bush: 251
Alabama, Alaska, Florida, Georgia, Idaho, Indiana, Iowa, Kansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, Missouri, Mississippi, Montana, Nebraska, New Mexico, North Carolina, North Dakota, Oklahoma, South Carolina, South Dakota, Tennessee, Texas, Utah, Virginia, West Virginia, Wisconsin, Wyoming

I think Arkansas, Ohio, Pennsylvania and Michigan will all hinge on minority voters. 6,000,000 minorities have newly registered for this election. I am pretty confident, except for Arkansas. The race has been tighter there than people really let on to believe. Neither Kerry nor Bush have made a stop there for months but Bush only has a small lead there. One speech in the right place at the right time could swing that state over to us.

I don't think Wisconsin will go to Kerry for the much the same reason. Not enough minority voters. I could say the same thing about Minnesota, but Minn has a very strong and long history of supporting Democrats. Sure, past performance does predict future earnings, but, along with Arkansas, it is a hunch of mine.

The only other surprise is Arizona. I think the key to that state is the very large student population. Arizona has more students per capita than any other state. I understand that this is my "what are you thinking" prediction.

A news arsenal

With less than a week to go before D-Day, I am finally ready to go into full election coverage mode.

I am now armed with a full arsenal of news programming, including SkyNews, ITV News, BBC News 24, BBC News Parliament, CNBC, Bloomberg, CNN and, yes, Fox News. SkyNews, ITV, BBC, CNBC, CNN and Fox are have election night coverage, so I am pretty excited.

The New Yorker endorsement

For the first time in, well, a very very long time (perhaps the first time ever), the New Yorker is endorsing a candidate for President. What is most striking about this piece though, is that of its 4523 words, 3856 are devoted to why Bush shouldn't be reelected and only 667 are devoted to Kerry. In the opening sentences of Kerry's "endorsement" the Editors say "but the challenger has more to offer than the fact that he is not George W. Bush." I'm not sure if they really believe that. By my rudimentary metric, Bush's "badness" outweighs Kerry's goodness 6:1.

I wonder how, across all the Kerry endorsements, the pro-Kerry column inches stack up against the anti-Bush ones.

Gore/Bush redux?

It is gonna be close. Uncomfortably close. Hoping we’re all wearing deodorant close.

Everyone new it was going to be close last time around. Look what happened. The guy who won the popular vote lost the election to the guy who won, dubiously, the Electoral College vote.

What do you think will happen if the same thing happens this year, except with Bush winning the popular vote and Kerry winning the Elector College? It could happen.

Concerns regarding disenfranchisement will arise, as they should, but how will the conservative and liberal elements of the media react? After all, the liberal elements went ape after Gore/Bush and the conservative elements were dismissive, saying the Electoral College is what it is, and they can’t do anything about the Constitution.

How will that precedent hold up?