Kerry 287 Bush 251 -- the official prediction

This is my prediction for the election, subject to a complete revisal at some point between now and the election:

Kerry: 287
Arizona, Arkansas, Califonia, Colorado, Connecticut, DC, Deleware, Hawaii, Illinois, Maine, Maryland, Mass., Michigan, Minnesota, Nevada, NJ, NH, NY, Ohio, Oregon, Penn, RI, Vermont, Washington

Bush: 251
Alabama, Alaska, Florida, Georgia, Idaho, Indiana, Iowa, Kansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, Missouri, Mississippi, Montana, Nebraska, New Mexico, North Carolina, North Dakota, Oklahoma, South Carolina, South Dakota, Tennessee, Texas, Utah, Virginia, West Virginia, Wisconsin, Wyoming

I think Arkansas, Ohio, Pennsylvania and Michigan will all hinge on minority voters. 6,000,000 minorities have newly registered for this election. I am pretty confident, except for Arkansas. The race has been tighter there than people really let on to believe. Neither Kerry nor Bush have made a stop there for months but Bush only has a small lead there. One speech in the right place at the right time could swing that state over to us.

I don't think Wisconsin will go to Kerry for the much the same reason. Not enough minority voters. I could say the same thing about Minnesota, but Minn has a very strong and long history of supporting Democrats. Sure, past performance does predict future earnings, but, along with Arkansas, it is a hunch of mine.

The only other surprise is Arizona. I think the key to that state is the very large student population. Arizona has more students per capita than any other state. I understand that this is my "what are you thinking" prediction.